Ohio, Florida, NC, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire are critical for Romney
Wins in Ohio, Florida, NC, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire are the most likely route to a Romney presidency. If he gets wins in all of these States, he wins the election. A loss in any one of them most likely means another Obama term. Romney is likely going to take Florida and is definitely going to take North Carolina (the latter should not even be counted in the toss-up category any longer) — but he can’t afford to take either for granted and should definitely focus a steady ad campaign and frequent visits on them, especially Florida.
Ohio is critical. No matter how you look at it, he MUST take Ohio. I do not see any viable alternate route to the White House without Ohio. My advice to the Romney campaign is that he all but live in Ohio. Do everything but take up permanent residence there. Forget Pennsylvania. It always looks like a tempting plum but don’t take the bait.
Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire are the other clinch the deal necessities — get some vacation homes there and vacation a lot.
Those are the States that I’d throw 80% of my time and money toward. I’d throw a further 10% at Virginia and divide the final 10% between the long-shots of Nevada and Pennsylvania.