If we hit Iran, here’s the deal on what will happen
1) We will delay but not prevent Iran developing nukes. That delay, however, is exceedingly important. It will also mean we’ll probably have to hit them again in a few years unless, having been slammed silly by us, the Green movement in Iran gets enough support to oust Mr. Ahmacrazyman.
2) I would count on a 30 day war only if the International community is able to make Bibi squeak like the Squirrel did (and I wouldn’t count on that). My bets are on 60 days and for here’s why see points 3 and 4.
3) Yes, Iran is going to hit back. Yes we are going to get hit by Hezbollah missiles out of Lebanon. Yes, we are going to get hit in the south by Hamas and it is quite likely we’ll get hit out of Egypt’s Sinai by “terrorists” that the government of Egypt will help along while claiming they have no control over the situation. The Syrians might even stop killing each other long enough to try to kill us.
4) If we are hit by Hezbollah, my projection is that the war will go longer than 30 days because this will be the opportunity to respond as we should have in Lebanon 2 and utterly wipe out their weapons caches and decimate Hezbollah’s infrastructure. We won’t have to worry about not hitting government infrastructure (like parliament, the airport etc) because this time around Hezbollah IS the government. In other words, this time around it won’t be us vs. Hezbollah, it will be us vs. Lebanon and Hezbollah will have brought that shit down on their heads once again. We would be criminally negligent to not take the opportunity to utterly incapacitate Hezbollah, their weapons stores and weapons supply lines and just send a damn big DON”T MESS WITH US message that they might want to hold onto for, say, the next 30 years.
5) Yes, we are going to have civilian casualties, yes we will be hit by shit in the middle of the country as well as in the north and south but no the casualties (military plus civilian) aren’t going to be as high as the 500 Barak and company are estimating. It is going to be higher. Realistically, I’d put likely casualties on our side somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000. I doubt it would be above 2k but could well be in the 1500 range and that would certainly be well within what we can absorb as losses. Just take a look at our losses in the Yom Kippur War for comparison.
6) Yes, the international media and European faux politicians will enter utter hysteria mode from day one and only ratchet it up. Yes, we will probably see some hysteria here as soon as IDF and/or civilian casualties hits around 100. Back during Lebanon 2 that is what happened and those who read my blog way back then remember my posts of utter disgust at that weak-kneed, lily-liver response* not only of the Left but also by a lot of helicopter parents. Please, people, show some stoicism.
* For those who want to say ‘oh but you were safe in the center of the country and can’t talk’ I went down to Sderot on several occasions to help get bomb shelters that were unusable in shape to be used in the middle of that crap and I went up north to help catch abandoned –because the populace had evacuated –and injured animals in the middle of that crap. During Cast Lead, before the university in Beer Sheva shut down, I was out completely in the open on my way to the uni when a grad rocket hit just half a block up the street –close enough to hear that mofo whistling like a banshee as it came down and then went boom.