If we hit Iran, here’s the deal on what will happen

1) We will delay but not prevent Iran developing nukes.  That delay, however, is exceedingly important.  It will also mean we’ll probably have to hit them again in a few years unless, having been slammed silly by us, the Green movement in Iran gets enough support to oust Mr. Ahmacrazyman.

2) I would count on a 30 day war only if the International community is able to make Bibi squeak like the Squirrel did (and I wouldn’t count on that).  My bets are on 60 days and for here’s why see points 3 and 4.

3) Yes, Iran is going to hit back.  Yes we are going to get hit by Hezbollah missiles out of Lebanon.  Yes, we are going to get hit in the south by Hamas and it is quite likely we’ll get hit out of Egypt’s Sinai by “terrorists” that the government of Egypt will help along while claiming they have no control over the situation.  The Syrians might even stop killing each other long enough to try to kill us.

4) If we are hit by Hezbollah, my projection is that the war will go longer than 30 days because this will be the opportunity to respond as we should have in Lebanon 2 and utterly wipe out their weapons caches and decimate Hezbollah’s infrastructure.  We won’t have to worry about not hitting government infrastructure (like parliament, the airport etc) because this time around Hezbollah IS the government.  In other words, this time around it won’t be us vs. Hezbollah, it will be us vs. Lebanon and Hezbollah will have brought that shit down on their heads once again.  We would be criminally negligent to not take the opportunity to utterly incapacitate Hezbollah, their weapons stores and weapons supply lines and just send a damn big DON”T MESS WITH US message that they might want to hold onto for, say, the next 30 years.

5) Yes, we are going to have civilian casualties, yes we will be hit by shit in the middle of the country as well as in the north and south but no the casualties (military plus civilian) aren’t going to be as high as the 500 Barak and company are estimating.  It is going to be higher.  Realistically, I’d put likely casualties on our side somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000.  I doubt it would be above 2k but could well be in the 1500 range and that would certainly be well within what we can absorb as losses.  Just take a look at our losses in the Yom Kippur War for comparison.

6) Yes, the international media and European faux politicians will enter utter hysteria mode from day one and only ratchet it up.  Yes, we will probably see some hysteria here as soon as IDF and/or civilian casualties hits around 100.  Back during Lebanon 2 that is what happened and those who read my blog way back then remember my posts of utter disgust at that weak-kneed, lily-liver response* not only of the Left but also by a lot of helicopter parents.  Please, people, show some stoicism.

* For those who want to say ‘oh but you were safe in the center of the country and can’t talk’ I went down to Sderot on several occasions to help get bomb shelters that were unusable in shape to be used in the middle of that crap and I went up north to help catch abandoned –because the populace had evacuated –and injured animals in the middle of that crap.  During Cast Lead, before the university in Beer Sheva shut down, I was out completely in the open on my way to the uni when a grad rocket hit just half a block up the street –close enough to hear that mofo whistling like a banshee as it came down and then went boom.


6 responses to “If we hit Iran, here’s the deal on what will happen”

  1. philipzhao says :

    The hit must take place before Obama gets his second term. Man proposes but God disposes !

  2. Lynne says :

    I suspect that there will be unexpected consequences if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear sites. Frankly, I would expect all hell to break loose. It’s extremely scary. Even the loss of one life is terrible. I know, Israel may not have a choice in this matter. It makes no sense to me to allow an insane, aggressive regime in Iran to obtain even more lethal weapons.

  3. WipeOutHamasOnceAndForAll says :

    It is going to be a hard decision as well as an easy decision for the current Israeli government to take as to whether or not they should strike Iran.

    Hard because it could escalate and that is surely the worst scenario that Yael has presented.
    Easy because it is the right decision to take, no matter the possible bad scenarios.

    Yes, Hezbollah is very likely to attack Israel because they are nothing less than Iran drones in Lebanon!
    The paradoxical thing is that it would benefit Israel fully. Israel could massively bombard Iran and, at the same time, move to Lebanon and wipe out the entire terrorist infrastructure created by Hezbollah. So a loss (Hezbollah attacking) could be transformed into a huge win (Israel wiping out Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon).

    I do not believe that Egypt, Jordan, or Syria would participate in an attack on Israel in the case where Israel would attack Iran. Why? Because Israel surely would contact these countries and clearly tell them that they would loose a lot if they enter a war following Israel’s attack. These countries have a lot to loose in territories in case they would join Iran.

    BUT, in such circumstances where Israel would move to Lebanon, they should expulse ALL the shiites from Lebanon and impose this decision on the remaining Lebanese people. As a punishment against Lebanon for having allowed Lebanon to be taken over by Hezbollah!!
    The problem is that Israel would never do that. I would if I was Israel’s PM but any Israeli government would not do that!

    Once thing is sure, the Israel attack would have to be MASSIVE and surely would have to last for several days, as Iran is a huge country and Iran made sure to spread to many locations its nuclear programs.

    The truth is that various countries have been in empty, bogus talks for at least four years, if not more (I cannot even remember when the first talks with Iran started but it is a long time ago).
    Each series of talks with Iran has always led to no results.
    It is time to “walk the talk” I could say. To put into action the threats that were made against Iran if they refuse to stop their nuclear programs.

    Fortunately or unfortunately, we are now at the dreaded stage where action is needed and it is the only option that remains!!! Massive action to strike massively Iran.
    Contrary to what Peres claimed falsely, Israel does have the capabilities to strike Iran massively.

    Now the question is: is it necessary to strike Iran massively because Iran surely could later on carrying on its efforts at building nuclear weapons?
    Let’s take two examples. Israel’s attack on Iraq’s nuclear facilities killed Iraq’s impetus at carrying on its nuclear ambitions. Same for Israel’s attack against Syria’ assumed nuclear site.
    More, an attack by Israel against Iran could promote a wave of changes in Iran that might allow a regime change. Not sure at all but it is a strong possibility.
    And it would cripple Iran for at least a decade because of the financial costs that Iran would have to rebuilt its military infrastructure.

    As much as I do not want to see Israel at war, in full honesty, there are cases where it is easy to see if an action is necessary and right. And a MASSIVE strike by Israel against Iran is a sad necessity for Israel, especially considering the fact that Iran’s drive to produce nuclear weapons is focused only with the intent at threatening the very existence of the State of Israel.
    Knowing the completely fanatic and mad President of Iran is as well as the Iranian mollahs at power in Iran, the decision seems much easier to take for Israel and for this Israeli government than what one would think at first assessment.

    Well, we will see sooner than we think. We have entered the optimal period for a strike on Iran.
    Will Israel have the courage to take such drastic action against Iran? I would be tempted to say no but Netanyahu is fully aware of the necessity to get rid of any possible short-term nuclear capabilities for Iran and that should make his decision much easier to take.

    Well, we will see in the coming months if Israel has the courage to “walk their talk” or not!

  4. Sylvia says :

    Do whatever you have to do. My thought is that those of us in the rest of the world – whether we are Jew or Gentile – who count ourselves as Friends of Zion should be getting some really big, loud, colourful pro-Israel rallies, marches, and other Events organised and on the streets NOW, SOON, ASAP, *BEFORE* the sh*t hits the proverbial. BEFORE Israel does what it must and the screaming lynch mobs swarm out onto the streets to denounce Israel’s attempts to defend itself against genocidal Jihad. Somebody, PLEASE, get those pro-Israel rallies, big ones, underway: in Washington, London, Sydney Melbourne Canberra, Toronto Montreal Ottawa, and everywhere else it can possibly be done. And on every major University campus in the western world.

  5. WipeOutHamasOnceAndForAll says :

    According to Iranian ayatollah Khamenei, ” ‘Tumor’ of Israel is world’s biggest problem”!!
    And this Iranian ayatollah is not the worst Iranian fanatic around, there are many other Iranians like him, not to mention also the President of Iranian who surely has to be granted the crown of craziness!!
    Read “Khamenei: ‘Tumor’ of Israel is world’s biggest problem” at http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4270418,00.html

    Any rational person, Israeli or not, knows that an Iranian attack by Israel or any other country is simply inevitable!! It is not a matter of “if”, it is only a matter of “when”!!
    Unless the current Israeli government returns into their frequent pattern of playing the ostrich and putting their heads in the sand!!!

    Just imagine for a second that these Iranian mad men would have in their possession a few nuclear bombs. Could you imagine the rest of the story? They would threaten, with intent to carry it on, a nuclear Holocaust against Israel!! More, Hezbollah could even end up with a few nuclear bombs for themselves, ready to be launched from Lebanon at the order of the Iranian ayatollahs!!!

    And the USA could even ends up having a few Iranians in Mexico or Canada, patiently awaiting, with a portable nuclear bomb ready for launch against the supposedly “evil” USA!!

    That is the reality of the current Iranian situation!!! Could any rational Israeli government stay still and do nothing when the crazy, mad ayatollahs in Iran are very busy working and building their first nuclear bombs?
    I let you answer this question yourself!!!!

    As much as we do not want Israel at war against Iran, the time to put our heads in the sand and say to ourselves that Iran is not extremely dangerous and that we would be better off doing NOTHING with Iran, this time is long gone!!!

  6. philipzhao says :

    Never again ? Live or die !

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