Archive | October 2012

Denver’s (Democrat) Mayor tells Wisconsin: Obama is losing in this state

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock told Wisconsin voters that if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin. “We have not turned out the vote early,” Hancock told the rally before Bill Clinton was trotted out like a prize pony. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote. We’ve got to get our people to go vote.”

Yeah, good luck with that… eh well no, not really. I wish you utterly bad luck in turning out the morons you might could drag off of their couches to vote for Obama.

Wednesdays are garden days

Wednesdays are the only days I can devote any significant time to the garden. Sunday – Tuesday I leave the house before there is enough light to even water and get home when it is too dark to see what you are stepping on, much less where a sprouting seedling might be. But Wednesdays, ah wow, I’ve got a full 3 hours to devote to gardening and getting thoroughly grubby in the morning. I can sometimes snatch a bit of time on Thursday, depending on my grad students and how much they need me, but Friday and Saturday are out except for watering.

On Tuesday, before I leave the uni, I collect a nice bag of used coffee grounds from the campus cafe and drag it home with me. So the first thing I do in my garden time is to deal with the compost piles –or rather pits. I turn them, add in the nitrogen-rich coffee grounds plus all the other stuff I’ve collected over the week for composting, and water them. Then I turn to trimming the verge. I long ago sectioned the yard into quarters to tackle each week and by the time I get back to my front-left originating point it is well and truly in need of maintenance. I then carry all the new cuttings either to put into the newest compost pit or to stack and age for mulch for when the weather turns actually cold. I pick up all the trash (usually filling a sack the size you’d stuff your leaves into in the fall in the U.S.) that people have tossed into our yard. Then, I turn to the really fun part.

So today I transplanted some parsley and some head lettuce. I discovered that one of the hot pepper plants isn’t a hot pepper because it has a bell pepper growing on it! I’ve started trying to root some rosemary cuttings (two in water, two direct in the soil) to see which method is going to work out best for me. I did a whole lot of weeding. Tomorrow or Friday morning, depending, I’ll have a nice batch of cherry tomatoes, baby lettuce, and green onions to harvest. The lettuce and onions are ready to cut today but the tomatoes are not quite ready and I’d rather get them all together 🙂

The rose bush that I trimmed back at the beginning of summer and then planted green onion and now garlic around has burst into amazing bloom, ten times what it produced last year at this time. We’ve got 7 rose bushes and this is the only one I’ve done prune and companion plant with and it is the only one to produce a riot of roses. It is literally covered in blooms and has buds galore in the wings.

Happy Halloween!

I know this is a very difficult Halloween for our friends on the East Coast of the U.S. (and with all the power outages they probably can’t see these wishes) but they are in our thoughts and prayers and wishes for a swift recovery for their families, homes, and communities.

Just sayin’

Romney is polling now better than every victorious challenger to the Presidency since 1968. Early voting in Ohio is going 52 Romney to 47 Obama. The Demoines Register, a very liberal rag, has endorsed a Republican for the first time in 40 years — yeah they even went for Carter and Mondale over Reagan. In fact, all four newspapers of record in Iowa have endorsed Romney and only one of them is a conservative-leaning rag. People keep saying it is going to be a close race but I don’t believe it. I put my faith in solidly collected and analyzed statistics (in some cases needing to be re-analyzed to account for the skew the original collectors built in). No, I don’t think it is going to end up being close.

deer rescued from pounding surf

A deer got stuck in the wild surf at a Monmouth County beach in New Jersey as Hurricane Sandy loomed Sunday afternoon, its presence threatening with dark skies and whipping winds.

NBC 4 New York’s cameras were at Monmouth Beach Sunday afternoon when the deer was spotted attempting the navigate the breaking surf. A barrier of rocks prevented the deer from being able to get back on the beach, and the animal ran helplessly in the waters.

A resident who was on the beach attemped to chase what appeared to be a young buck parallel to the shoreline to get it to a point where the rocks ended and the sand began.

“I didn’t want him to get in the rocks, so I was just trying to force him out, scare him almost,” said Joe Schaedel. “He was very confused, scared by everything.”

Schaedel said he’s an outdoorsman and an animal lover.

“I’d hate to see a young deer like that get killed in the rocks,” he said.

Animal Control and Humane Society responded and tranquilized the deer, which was found with a broken leg. ACHS has taken it into its care in hopes of nursing it back to health.

Israeli Jews favour Romney 3:1

Poll reported by Jpost

Israeli Jews prefer Republican candidate Mitt Romney over US President Barack Obama by an almost 3:1 margin, according to a “Peace Index” poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University that was released Sunday.

The polling figures stand in stark contrast to polls taken of American Jews, which show they prefer Obama by a similarly wide margin. An American Jewish Committee poll at the end of September showed US Jews favoring Obama over Romney 63%-27%.

Asked “in terms of Israeli interests, who would be preferable to win the elections next month in the US,” 57.2% of Israeli Jews said Romney, while only 21.5% said Obama.

Among Israeli Arabs, the numbers were reversed, with 45% opting for Obama, and 15% for Romney.

A similar Peace Index poll in July found that Israelis felt that Romney “assigned more importance to defending Israel’s national interest” than Obama by a 2:1 ratio: 40% for Romney to 19% for Obama.

Beautiful: Two good indicators that Romney will take it by 4-6 points

Both Gallup and Rasmussen do party affiliation tracking. In 2008, based on tracking, Gallup over-estimated Obama’s lead at the voting booth predicting he’d take it by 10 points — he won with a 7.2 point lead. Rasmussen, based on their tracking, predicted he’d win by 7.1 and was right on the money. Gallup is out with it’s October tracking and Rasmussen is out with it’s September tracking (and September was a very bad month for Romney and was pre-debate bombshell) and both indicate Romney will win by between 4-6 points (Rasmussen’s points to a 5.7 victory margin).

Here’s the breakdown from National Review on the Gallup poll based on nearly 10,000 respondents with a +/- 1 pt margin of error:

Gallup finds the ten-point advantage for Democrats [Eds note: from 2008] has now turned into a one-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that one-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.

To get an idea of what this shift means, I plugged the Gallup 2008 and 2012 partisan numbers into the actual results from the 2008 election. Under Gallup’s breakdown, Obama would have won in 2008 by 9.8 points (he actually won by 7.2), and would eke out a victory against Romney in 2012 by eight tenths of a point.

But here’s why you can feel the panic emanating from Chicago: Romney is currently doing better with independents than Obama did in 2008. Obama won independents by eight, in 2008 while Romney is currently leading by 10.6 points on average. If the independent numbers are entered in to the 2008 results, Romney would have a victory of over four points. Even if Romney does not take any more crossover votes (Democrats who vote Republican and vice versa) than McCain got in 2008, he would still win by over four points on Election Day.

And here is the breakdown of Rasmussen’s smaller sample of 1500 (margin of error +/- 3)

In 2008 Rasmussen found Democrats with a 7.1 percentage point advantage in turnout, which was a perfect prediction of the Democratic turnout margin on Election Day. In September of 2012, Rasmussen has Republicans now edging Democrats by 2.6 percent, with a split of 34 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. Keep in mind that September was a brutal month for Romney between enduring Obama’s post-DNC bounce, the 47 percent video, and the media reaction to his Egypt embassy statement, meaning October, given the debates, could be even stronger than September was for the GOP.

Regardless, taking the Rasmussen partisan breakdown of 2008 and 2012 numbers and plugging them into the actual results gives Obama a seven-point win in 2008 and Romney a half-point victory in 2012. Taking the same scenario as Gallup and moving the independent results to match the current polling average changes Romney’s half-point victory into a 5.7-point victory. (As with Gallup, I’m assuming the Republican and Democrat voting margins stay the same as 2008.)

That last assumption is not a safe one from the Obama camp’s point of view because Dems are pretty unenthused this time around and are unlikely to turn out in such high percents as they did in 2008 (early voting shows about 2,000 less Democrats per day casting votes compared to in the 2008 early voting, while Republicans are turning out with approximately 700 more per day than occurred in 2008) and Republicans have their chevy’s revved. In other words, Romney may take it by an even wider margin.