Election model predicting it will be a Romney landslide
Mitt Romney will win the popular vote and take the White House with more than 320 electoral votes, according to an election model that correctly determines the winner when applied to the last eight presidential elections. [Minx note: That is a pretty darn good record]
The model, based on state-level economic data, predicts that President Barack Obama will lose nearly all key states that many observers view as toss-ups: North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. He’d also drop Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where polls indicate Obama is ahead, the study says. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80024.html#ixzz24MHqCYLu
Polls in the swing states seem to be starting to bear that prediction out. Several polls have Romney ahead now in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida and neck and neck in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Interestingly, several of the polls have Romney ahead even with a D+8 skew to the sample (in other words, with an oversampling of Dems compared to Republicans and independents). Both Rasmussen and Gallup national polls now have Romney consistently ahead in their daily rolling averages — Rasmussen for several weeks now and Gallup over the past week.
Of course, things could change if there is a sizable positive shift in economic outlook in the next couple of months. That looks unlikely to happen at this point though, with the latest job loss numbers jumping significantly up this past month and look out for September when America’s credit rating is being targeted for another downgrade (after having already been downgraded again by S&P this month) by some big players. –ah this just in, the CBO has just issued a report warning of the danger the U.S. is going to go into a significant recession.