Election model predicting it will be a Romney landslide

Mitt Romney will win the popular vote and take the White House with more than 320 electoral votes, according to an election model that correctly determines the winner when applied to the last eight presidential elections. [Minx note:  That is a pretty darn good record]

The model, based on state-level economic data, predicts that President Barack Obama will lose nearly all key states that many observers view as toss-ups: North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. He’d also drop Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where polls indicate Obama is ahead, the study says. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80024.html#ixzz24MHqCYLu

Polls in the swing states seem to be starting to bear that prediction out.  Several polls have Romney ahead now in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida and neck and neck in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.  Interestingly, several of the polls have Romney ahead even with a D+8 skew to the sample (in other words, with an oversampling of Dems compared to Republicans and independents).  Both Rasmussen and Gallup national polls now have Romney consistently ahead in their daily rolling averages — Rasmussen for several weeks now and Gallup over the past week.

Of course, things could change if there is a sizable positive shift in economic outlook in the next couple of months.  That looks unlikely to happen at this point though, with the latest job loss numbers jumping significantly up this past month and look out for September when America’s credit rating is being targeted for another downgrade (after having already been downgraded again by S&P this month) by some big players. –ah this just in, the CBO has just issued a report warning of the danger the U.S. is going to go into a significant recession.

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7 responses to “Election model predicting it will be a Romney landslide”

  1. TDDPirate says :

    Poor female Americans, who have to choose among rock and hard place (or among the plague and cholera).
    Either lose your freedom as Islam invades USA, or be forced to carry to term the consequences of rapes and forced to die if saving your life requires a medical procedure which kills a potentially viable fetus.

    • israeliminx says :

      Pirate — there is no way in hell that abortion is going to be made illegal anytime soon in the U.S. no matter who gets into office — Reagan, Bush Sr, and Bush Jr. were all anti-choice (and more so than Romney). Didn’t happen during the 12 years of Reagan/Bush Sr. in office or the 8 years of Bush Jr. Ain’t going to happen under Romney either.

      Limits may be placed on late-term and partial abortions but, in my opinion, there SHOULD be limits in those cases. We are talking about a time-frame where the baby could survive outside the womb. Personally, I’d say anything after 16 weeks should be off limits except if the mother’s life is in danger. Nearly 4 months is plenty of time to make the decision to abort or not.

  2. Lynne says :

    I hope that this prediction is correct. There is evidence of voter fraud though in the last election (Obama wins), so anything can happen. This is the most corrupt administration, worse than Nixon.
    No, abortion will not be made illegal in the US. I would say that most Republicans are pro-choice, quietly pro-choice.

  3. philipzhao says :

    My prediction: Obama will declare himself as the Emperor of the US Empire and will disslove the Congress, abolish the constitution and call off election. Martial law will be implemented throughtout the Empire. He knows only too well that Americans are too weak to do anythihg but knuckle under to his tyrannical rule.
    All of these will take place in late October with the support of Muslim Brotherhood/CAIR/Department of Homeland Insecurity and the Federal Bureau of Islam…… Hey! sounds like a movie? Look, Miiiichelleeeelle wears a Burqa !

    • Dick says :

      Obama might like it that way, and some of his minions too. He certainly has no problem instructing ICE and other agencies to disregard Congressional legislation. Not to mention basically dissing the Supreme Court. Fortunately, I can’t see it playing out that way.

      I’d love to see things play out according to the model, but I have just enough experience with models to mistrust them. Just look at the myriads of predictive models for the path of tropical storm Isaac — literally all over the map.

      I once spent a year and a half building a discrete model of the new Abdul Aziz airport in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. This is the “new” airport build to facilitate the annual flow of Haj pilgrims into and out of Mecca/Medina. Before I had even halfway finished it, I knew it would be worthless in practice. I was modeling the runway use, parking apron use, mobile lounge or bus use for transporting passenger/pilgrims back and forth to planes and the terminal flows such as passport control and customs. Everything was driven from the actual flight records of previous years. But the devil was, as always, in the human details.
      How do you model behavior like all the Saudi Air Controllers just getting up as a group and leaving the control center when it’s time for tea breaks? They’d just leave the airplanes coming in or out to talk each other down or up without playing crash bang. The same holds true for passport/customs people. They had no intention of staffing personnel according to any kind of peak usage models. And predicting mobile lounge/bus demand was worthless in a culture that disdains any kind of preventative maintenance on equipment.
      “Hey, Ali, go find a bus that runs and pick up 350 pilgrims and dump them out at B24 on the parking apron.”

      But it did pay well.

  4. Lynne says :

    Dick, always,always an interesting comment and worth reading 🙂

  5. 300 yrs in America says :

    Unfortunately the dems have a long rich history of voter fraud and election stealing. They have perfected this art since the Reformation ended. Hopefully people will actually go to the polls,no absentee mail ins. Im glad i found this site.

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